Uganda announces first election results
On Friday morning, Uganda’s electoral commission published further preliminary results for the presidential election. According to these results, 81-year-old incumbent Yoweri Museveni (National Resistance Movement, NRM), who is running for a seventh term, is in the lead with 76.25%, followed by opposition leader and musician Robert Kyagulanyi, better known as Bobi Wine (National Unity Platform, NUP), with 19.85%. The figures are based on counts from 22,758 polling stations, which corresponds to 44.85% of the total 50,739 polling stations. The remaining seven candidates are far behind with 0.02–2.43%. The official election results are expected to be announced on Saturday. In addition to the presidential election, parliamentary elections were also held. There were 353 constituency seats and 146 seats for women representatives up for election. Around 21.7 million people registered to vote.
Election day was overshadowed by organisational problems. Numerous polling stations opened late, resulting in long queues. In some cases, election documents were not available, and in others, the biometric devices used for voter identification failed. The organisational problems met with an overall tense atmosphere in the country. In the capital Kampala, election day was marked by a heavy military presence, and since Tuesday evening, internet access has been blocked nationwide – a move that Uganda’s Communications Commission justified on the grounds of ensuring public safety and protecting against misinformation and disinformation. The opposition, however, sharply criticised the internet shutdown and accused the government of obstructing independent election monitoring and the publication and verification of results. In response, the NUP provided the offline app Bitchat, which enables decentralised election monitoring using Bluetooth technology. On election day, Wine made allegations of massive election fraud and harassment of NUP election workers.
Human rights organisations had already complained about an atmosphere of fear in the run-up to the election. There were repeated clashes with security forces at Bobi Wine’s campaign events, with reports of tear gas, water cannons and batons being used; several people were injured and numerous supporters were arrested. Amnesty International spoke of a ‘brutal campaign of repression’, while the police emphasised that these were not targeted measures against the opposition. In terms of content, the election campaign focused primarily on economic issues. Unemployment is particularly high among young people: according to Uganda’s statistics office, in September 2025 more than half of 18- to 30-year-olds were unemployed, underqualified or without vocational training. The dilapidated infrastructure and the education and health systems are also among the key challenges. While Museveni campaigned with the slogan ‘Protecting the gains’ and pursued the goal of developing Uganda into a high middle-income country through investment in industry and agriculture, Bobi Wine promised a new political beginning, the restoration of freedom, the fight against corruption and the creation of jobs.
The election is also being watched internationally. Museveni is considered a strategic partner of European countries and the USA, and has recently intensified cooperation with the Gulf states. During his reign, he opened the country to foreign investment and, among other things, facilitated the market entry of French and Chinese companies to carry out oil drilling in the country. He also sent troops to regional crisis areas such as Somalia and took in around two million refugees. At the same time, experts see the election in Uganda as a test for the region, following nationwide outbreaks of violence in neighbouring Tanzania during the October 2025 elections. In Kenya, too, protests against the government in 2024 resulted in fatalities. In Uganda itself, election day is traditionally considered to be relatively calm. However, the decisive factor is likely to be how security forces and political actors react to the announcement of the results. Bobi Wine has already stated in advance that if the election is rigged, citizens have the right to protest peacefully.
Somalia announces termination of agreements with the United Arab Emirates
On Monday, the Somali Council of Ministers in Mogadishu announced the termination of all agreements with the United Arab Emirates (UAE). In addition to bilateral agreements, this also affects all agreements with federal institutions, affiliated institutions and federal member states. This particularly affects security and defence cooperation, including training programmes, logistical support and the operation of military facilities. According to the government, the reason for the decision is the UAE’s undermining of Somalia’s state sovereignty, national unity and territorial integrity, citing key principles of international law, including the UN Charter, the Constitutive Act of the African Union (AU) and the charters of the Arab League and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC).
The specific reason for the decision was the transit of Yemeni separatist leader Aidarous al-Zubaidi through Somaliland last week, which was allegedly facilitated by the UAE and not authorised by Somalia. The Somali authorities subsequently launched investigations into the unauthorised use of airspace and airports. However, according to Somalia’s Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Ali Omar, this is only the latest in a series of incidents that have strained relations between Mogadishu and Abu Dhabi for some time. Among other things, Somalia accuses the UAE of having politically pushed for Israel’s recognition of Somaliland in December. Somaliland unilaterally declared its independence in 1991, but is not recognised internationally and continues to be considered part of Somali territory by Mogadishu. Further tensions arise from the close economic and military cooperation and extensive investments by the UAE in the semi-autonomous and strategically important regions of Somaliland, Jubaland and Puntland. Mogadishu accuses the Emirates of deliberately circumventing the central government in order to expand its influence in the region. This weakens national unity and deprives the federal government of control over strategically important ports and resources. Specifically, this concerns the port agreements in Berbera (Somaliland), Bosaso (Jubaland) and Kismayo (Puntland), whose ports are located on one of the world’s most important shipping routes. In the coastal city of Bosaso, for example, the logistics company DP World from the UAE has a 30-year licence to operate the port. Mogadishu’s decision to cancel all agreements with the UAE would also affect this contract.
Unsurprisingly, the governments of Somaliland, Puntland and Jubaland announced on Monday evening that they would not recognise the Somali central government’s revocation of the agreements; existing security and development agreements would remain valid. Port operations are also continuing as usual, according to DP World. There has been no official statement from Abu Dhabi so far, but on Monday there were reports of the evacuation of UAE personnel and military equipment from the air base in Bosaso.
According to analysts, Somalia could now realign its foreign policy and deepen its relations with Qatar and, in particular, Saudi Arabia, which are competing with the UAE for influence in Yemen, the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa. In this power struggle, the Emirates are also facing serious accusations internationally, for example in connection with their support for the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan. Critics see this as Abu Dhabi’s contribution to the escalation of the conflict there – accusations that the UAE rejects. A further rapprochement with Turkey, which has expanded its presence in Somalia in recent years, is also considered possible. Observers are therefore increasingly interpreting the decision from Mogadishu as part of a larger geopolitical realignment in which Somalia is attempting to explore its foreign policy options between rival regional power centres.
In other news
This week, the Amazigh, one of North Africa’s indigenous peoples, celebrated their New Year festival, Yennayer, marking the beginning of the year 2976. In contrast to the Gregorian calendar, the Amazigh calendar begins around 950 years earlier, i.e. in 950 BC, and honours King Sheshonq I’s rise to power in Egypt, which is considered one of the most significant political eras of the Amazigh. Yennayer, which translates as ‘first month’, is celebrated between 12 and 14 January, depending on the region, and is based on the agricultural cycle of North Africa. Accordingly, it also marks the beginning of the agricultural year and symbolises hope for fertility and a good harvest in the new year. The celebrations focus on family gatherings, shared meals and rituals that emphasise closeness to nature and community. Although Yennayer has always been celebrated, it has only been recognised as an official national holiday by two North African countries, Algeria (2018) and Morocco (2023), in recent years. In doing so, these states honour and preserve the cultural identity of the Amazigh.