US Congress passes shortened extension of the AGOA agreement
On Monday, the US Congress passed a one-year extension of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which had expired in September. Signed in 2000, the agreement is regarded as one of the most important instruments of US trade policy towards Africa. It grants sub-Saharan African countries duty-free access to the US market for more than 1,800 products, in addition to the 3,000 duty-free goods covered under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) for developing countries. With the one-year extension, the House of Representatives has moved away from its original position. Previously, it had overwhelmingly supported a three-year extension until 2028, based on the AGOA Extension Act (H.R. 6500), which had been introduced as a standalone bill.
The newly adopted extension is part of wider budget legislation, effectively superseding the AGOA Extension Act and reflecting the priorities of US President Donald Trump’s administration. The administration had called for greater influence over the design of AGOA and pressed for a shorter extension period. According to US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, the one-year extension is intended to be used to modernise AGOA and refocus it more strongly on bilateral trade. Before coming into effect, the extension must still be approved by the US Senate. The vote, intended to coincide with budget funding discussions, was delayed by adverse weather and the protests in Minneapolis. Once adopted, the extension will apply retroactively from 1 October 2025, the date on which the programme expired.
Since its introduction, AGOA is estimated to have created more than 300,000 direct jobs and a further 1.3 million indirect jobs in Africa, as well as over 100,000 jobs in the United States, while significantly contributing to investment promotion on the African continent. In 2023, US imports under AGOA amounted to approximately USD 9.7 billion.The shortened extension has triggered mixed reactions. Against the backdrop of the US government’s “America First” strategy and its shift away from multilateral arrangements towards bilateral and sector-specific agreements, some view the extension of AGOA itself as a positive outcome. However, the uncertainty ahead of the programme’s expiry, caused by delays in the extension process, had already produced tangible effects: in several African countries, thousands of jobs—particularly in the textile and export-oriented manufacturing sectors—are reported to have been lost. Critics therefore fear that a one-year extension will be insufficient to stabilise investment or recover lost jobs. New York Congressman Gregory Meeks also warned that the decision would create additional risks that could deter investment and prompt African states to turn more strongly towards China economically.
The future status of South Africa, one of AGOA’s previously largest beneficiaries, remains unclear. In 2023, the country was the second-largest AGOA exporter and the largest supplier of non-oil products. Against the backdrop of rising tensions between South Africa and the United States, Greer had already stated that South Africa could be “treated differently” under a future AGOA extension (Press review CW 50/2025). Looking ahead to potential reforms of AGOA, Greer announced that the agreement should in future create greater export opportunities for the United States. Meanwhile, on Wednesday, a high-level US delegation led by Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau visited the African Union Commission and announced the establishment of the US–AUC Strategic Infrastructure and Investment Working Group (SIWG). The group is intended to identify opportunities for American investment, joint infrastructure projects, reciprocal trade, and the development of supply chains in the field of critical raw materials.
Rwanda initiates arbitration proceedings against the United Kingdom in The Hague
On Tuesday, Rwanda announced that it had initiated international arbitration proceedings against the United Kingdom before the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague. Kigali accuses the British government of failing to fulfil its obligations under the now-terminated bilateral asylum agreement, the Migration and Economic Development Partnership. Specifically, Rwanda is demanding payment of two outstanding installments of £50 million each, which would have been due in April 2025 and April this year. In addition, Kigali accuses the British government of having made confidential contract details public, in particular regarding the amount of agreed payments, and of failing to fulfil its obligations to resettle vulnerable refugees who were already in Rwanda.
According to the Rwandan government, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer publicly declared the agreement terminated after his election victory in 2024, but did not formally terminate it, meaning that the obligations would continue to apply. In November 2024, the British government requested that the Rwandan government waive the outstanding payments. Rwanda made the waiver of outstanding payments conditional on new negotiations. As these never took place and further diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict were unsuccessful, Rwanda has now taken the matter to the Permanent Court of Arbitration.
The Migration and Economic Development Partnership was concluded in April 2022 under then British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. It was intended to reduce irregular migration to the UK by transferring asylum seekers to Rwanda, where their asylum applications would be examined (Press review CW 17/2024). In return, the UK committed to making substantial payments and resettling vulnerable refugees from Rwanda. The agreement was controversial from the outset. Human rights organisations, opposition politicians and international bodies expressed concerns about sending asylum seekers to unsafe third countries. In 2022, the European Court of Human Rights stopped a first deportation flight by means of an interim order and made it clear that member states were obliged to follow such measures if there was a risk of irreversible human rights violations. In November 2023, the UK Supreme Court also confirmed that Rwanda could not be classified as a safe third country under international law and declared the agreement unlawful (Press review CW 50/2023).
After the change of government, the Labour government under Prime Minister Starmer declared the agreement terminated in July 2024 and suspended further payments. At that point, the UK had already spent a total of £700 million on the agreement, including £240 million or £290 million in direct payments to the Rwandan government, depending on the source. Ultimately, only four volunteers were transferred to Rwanda.
The current arbitration proceedings raise questions about the legal security of migration partnerships even beyond changes of government. While the Labour government justified the termination of the agreement concluded by the Conservative Tories on the grounds of, among others, high costs and lack of efficiency, the Tories are now accusing the Labour government of wasting taxpayers’ money by terminating the agreement incorrectly. Meanwhile, in its response to the arbitration proceedings, the British government is said to have declared the agreement terminated in writing, meaning that it will officially expire on 16 March 2026.
In other news
On Wednesday, the well-known American streamer and YouTuber IShowSpeed concluded his 28-day tour of Africa. The 21-year-old, whose real name is Darren Watkins Jr., visited 20 countries as part of his “Speed Does Africa” tour, introducing his now roughly 51 million followers to the diversity of the African continent. Over the course of 118 hours of live streaming, he travelled through various districts of different capital cities, sampled local cuisine, competed against athletes, learnt traditional dances and met celebrities and local leaders. The most-watched livestream of the tour was his attendance at the AFCON final in Morocco, where he made a surprise appearance as a mascot. Consciously or unconsciously, Speed also drew attention to structural inequalities and economic dependencies. For instance, in Botswana he was prevented from purchasing rough diamonds, as only two entities in the entire country are authorised to do so: the state-owned Okavango Diamond Company (ODC) and the British multinational company De Beers. Reactions and comments on the videos suggest that his tour has successfully helped to challenge and positively reshape the distorted image of Africa among the predominantly young users of Speed’s platform.