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Military Takes Control in Madagascar
Today, Colonel Michael Randrianirina was sworn in as the new President of Madagascar by the Supreme Constitutional Court. This followed Tuesday’s military takeover after weeks of youth-led protests against the government of President Andry Rajoelina. During the official ceremony, which was attended by members of the military, political figures, protest movement representatives, and delegates from the USA, the EU, Switzerland, Germany, France, and Russia, Randrianirina promised comprehensive reforms of the administrative, socio-economic, and political systems. He announced that elections would be held within a maximum of two years; until then, the country is to be governed by a transitional government. Talks about appointing a consensus prime minister are already underway, the 51-year-old stated to various media outlets. He emphasized that this was not a military coup but a government acting on behalf of the people. Even before his swearing-in, Randrianirina had announced that as part of the takeover, all state institutions except for the National Assembly would be dissolved and the constitution suspended.
The takeover was criticised internationally. The African Union (AU) immediately suspended Madagascar’s membership and condemned the military’s actions as unconstitutional. It also announced a joint fact-finding mission with the Southern African Development Community (SADC), which is currently chaired by Madagascar. The United Nations also condemned the seizure of power and called for the preservation of constitutional order. Randrianirina, on the other hand, emphasizes his appointment by the Constitutional Court and rejects the term “coup.” The military has also received backing from the youth-led protest movement “Gen Z Madagascar,” which has been demanding Rajoelina’s resignation for weeks.
The protests were mainly triggered by ongoing power and water outages (Press Review CW 40/2025). In response, Rajoelina dissolved his government and soon after appointed General Ruphin Fortunat Zafisambo as the new Prime Minister. Despite these steps and an offer for dialogue with civil society, demonstrators continued to demand Rajoelina’s resignation. Security forces repeatedly responded to the protests with violence, resulting in several deaths and numerous injuries. Over the past weekend, the military unit CAPSAT, led by Randrianirina, declared it would no longer follow government orders and sided with the protesters. CAPSAT had also played a key role in the 2009 coup that initially brought Rajoelina to power. Other units of the army and police joined in. Rajoelina subsequently left the country. On Monday, he stated on social media that he had fled for security reasons and dissolved parliament by decree. However, parliament rejected the dissolution as unlawful and initiated impeachment proceedings on the grounds that Rajoelina had effectively abandoned office. On Tuesday, a majority of lawmakers voted for his removal, and the Constitutional Court declared the presidency vacant. With Randrianirina’s swearing-in, Madagascar has once again undergone a change of power without regular elections. Whether the transitional government will succeed in addressing pressing issues such as poverty and social inequality, and in keeping its promise to hold elections within two years, remains to be seen. It is also currently unclear what political impact the power shift will have at the regional level.
Power Shift in the Seychelles
On Sunday, Patrick Herminie of United Seychelles (US) was declared the winner in the second round of the Seychelles presidential election. In the runoff election, the 62-year-old won 52.7% of the vote against incumbent Wavel Ramkalawan (47.3%) of the Linyon Demokratik Seselwa (LDS). Ramkalawan conceded defeat on Sunday, congratulated Herminie and assured a smooth and dignified transfer of power. A first meeting between Herminie and Ramkalawan took place at the seat of government on Monday. With Herminie’s victory, US, which had consistently provided the island nation’s president prior to Ramkalawan’s election victory in 2020, is now taking over the reins of government again. The runoff election followed the first round at the end of September, in which none of the eight candidates was able to achieve the absolute majority necessary for a direct victory. At the same time, a new parliament was also elected for the next five years. Here, too, Herminie’s party regained its parliamentary majority this year, after having lost it in 2016. US won 19 out of 35 seats, while the LDS secured 15 seats. According to official figures, voter turnout was around 82%.
Both rounds of voting were accompanied by an intense election campaign, which focused in particular on issues of economic development, social justice, the climate crisis and Ramkalawan’s political record. The 64-year-old incumbent and former Anglican priest had focused his campaign on the economic recovery under his government following the coronavirus pandemic. His challenger, Herminie, Speaker of Parliament from 2007 to 2016 and a trained doctor, announced during the campaign that he would reduce the high cost of living, strengthen the civil service, take more consistent action against corruption and focus more on the drug problem in the Seychelles. According to a United Nations report, the archipelago, which consists of 115 islands, lies on international drug smuggling routes from Asia to Africa. It is estimated that around ten per cent of the approximately 120,000 inhabitants are addicted to drugs. During his time as head of the national anti-drug agency, Herminie initiated a methadone programme that earned him widespread recognition among the population.
Another key issue in the election campaign was a controversial deal by the LDS government to lease Assomption Island to a Qatari investor for a hotel project. In particular, the proximity to the UNESCO World Heritage Site of Aldabra, which is only about 40 kilometres from the island, and fears of environmental damage were sharply criticised by both the opposition and environmental and civil society groups. A week before the first round of voting, several organisations filed a lawsuit against the project. The US also accused the LDS of putting foreign interests above the sovereignty of the Seychelles in connection with the project and of receiving illegal campaign funding from Qatari actors. Herminie announced on Wednesday that he had already written to the Qatari government to cancel the deal and called on Doha to stay out of national affairs.
The Seychelles, which has the highest gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in Africa, is not only considered a magnet for investment in the luxury tourism sector, but also a partner for security cooperation with China, the Gulf states and India. Under the former United Seychelles government, India pursued plans to establish a military base on the island of Assomption. The project stalled after the change of government in 2020 and as a result of widespread protests. Against this backdrop, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi was the first to congratulate Herminie on her election victory. It remains to be seen how the new government will deal with the controversial project.
Special news
On Wednesday, Kenyan opposition politician and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga passed away at the age of 80. Odinga was considered one of the main architects of the multi-party system introduced in 1991. As part of a political settlement following the disputed 2007 elections and the ensuing political violence, he served as Prime Minister from 2008 to 2013. Even afterwards, Odinga remained a political heavyweight and a central opposition figure. He ran for the presidency a total of five times, most recently in 2022, but never prevailed. This year, he also ran for the chairmanship of the African Union but was defeated in the runoff. Odinga died in India, where he was receiving medical treatment. Kenya’s President William Ruto praised him as a “giant of democracy” and declared seven days of national mourning.
In other news
Tuesday saw the final match day of the African qualifiers for the 2026 Football World Cup, which will be jointly hosted by the USA, Canada and Mexico. With the conclusion of the qualifiers, the continent’s nine representatives have now been determined — including Cabo Verde, which qualified for the first time. On Monday, the Blue Sharks won their final preliminary round match against Eswatini with 3:0, qualifying for the World Cup for the first time. The celebration among fans of the island nation off the coast of West Africa was correspondingly overwhelming, as the country is also marking 50 years of independence this year. The other countries that have qualified are Algeria, Egypt, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Morocco, South Africa, Senegal and Tunisia. However, Gabon, Cameroon, Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo also still have a chance of qualifying for the World Cup. These four best runners-up, will compete for a tenth place in November. With the increase to 48 teams, African countries now have twice as many spots in this tournament as before.