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Escalation of the situation in Eastern Congo
Today marks the start of the two-day joint emergency summit of the East African Community (EAC) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) to discuss the escalation in the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). According to Kenya’s President William Ruto, who currently holds the EAC presidency, both Rwandan President Paul Kagame and his Congolese counterpart Félix Tshisekedi have confirmed their participation. However, it remains unclear whether Tshisekedi will participate in person or only virtually.
The convening of the meeting followed the conquest of the provincial capital Goma in the North Kivu region by M23 rebels, allegedly supported by Rwanda, on 27 January. According to the United Nations (UN), around 2,900 people were killed in the attack, with hundreds of thousands fleeing the region. On Monday, the rebel alliance Alliance Fleuve Congo (AFC), of which the M23 is also a member, declared a unilateral ceasefire starting on Tuesday. It was also emphasised that it had no ambitions to advance to Bukavu, the capital of South Kivu province. However, the DRC government has declared the ceasefire to be a hoax and referred to UN reports of continued heavy fighting on Wednesday.
According to these reports, there has been an increase in clashes in the neighbouring province of South Kivu in recent days, including in the mining town of Nyabibwe, which is located around 100 km from the provincial capital Bukavu and only around 50 km from the provincial airport, which is a central hub for civilian and humanitarian flights.
The conflict is also a matter of international concern and pressure on Rwanda is increasing. On Wednesday, UN Secretary-General António Guterres made a special appeal for peace in the DRC and warned of the catastrophic humanitarian situation in Goma. At the end of January, the European Union (EU) had also clearly condemned the ‘Rwandan military presence in the Democratic Republic of Congo’, called on M23 to ‘withdraw’ and threatened with sanctions. It is currently unclear what form such sanctions would take and whether the member states can agree on them. Meanwhile, Belgium is pushing for a suspension of the minerals agreement that the EU concluded with Kigali in February 2024 to secure Europe’s raw material supply for sustainable technological growth. The chair of the European Parliament’s Africa delegation, Hilde Vautmans, also warned that the EU must suspend the agreement until Kagame proves that Rwanda is ending its interference in the conflict.
The possibility of ending European support for the Rwandan armed forces deployed to fight Islamist insurgents in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province is also being discussed. As recently as November last year, the EU approved an additional 20 million Euro for this purpose under the European Peace Facility (EPF). On Thursday, European Parliament President António Costa also spoke with Kagame and Tshisekedi on the phone to express his concern about the conflict. Meanwhile, the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development announced that it would cancel the government consultations with Kigali planned for 11 and 12 February.
It remains to be seen whether a rapprochement between Kinshasa and Kigali can be achieved at the EAC-SADC ummit. Nevertheless, the joint summit of the two regional organisations is considered a successful diplomatic step. So far, the EAC and SADC have taken different positions on how to resolve the conflict. A joint meeting could now pave the way for a common approach and further talks.
New tensions between the USA and South Africa
US Secretary of State Marc Rubio announced on Wednesday that he would not be attending the G20 Foreign Ministers’ meeting in Johannesburg, South Africa, on 20-21 February. The reason given was that South Africa, which currently holds the G20 presidency, is expropriating private property and using its G20 presidency to promote “solidarity, equality and sustainability”. On Sunday, US President Donald Trump also accused the South African government of confiscating land and treating the white minority population unfairly in a post on his Social Truth platform, describing it as a human rights violation. In doing so, Trump was referring to the new land reform law that South African President Cyril Ramaphosa signed at the end of last month. The so-called Expropriation Act No. 13 of 2024 is intended to help the South African state to compensate for the inequalities in property ownership that arose as a result of apartheid.
Ramaphosa firmly rejected the accusations made by Trump and his administration, emphasising that expropriation laws have ‘always existed’ in both South Africa and the United States and are essential to ‘striking a balance between the need for public use of land and the protection of property rights’. At the same time, he emphasised that he wanted to continue to maintain a positive diplomatic relationship with the US President and to talk to him about both the land reforms in South Africa and other issues of bilateral importance.
The threatened cancellation of US aid would primarily affect the PEPFAR health initiative, which accounts for 17% of South Africa’s HIV/AIDS programme. In 2023, the US provided around 440 million US dollars for this. The US exchange rate for the South African currency fell to a record low of 19:1 after Trump’s threat. South African stocks and government bonds also lost value. Some of the reactions from the South African side were correspondingly harsh. Gwede Mantashe, South Africa’s Minister of Mineral and Petroleum Resources, threatened on Monday at the 31st African Mining Indaba in Cape Town that South Africa would withhold minerals in return if Trump actually cut funding. South Africa exports raw materials such as gold, platinum, diamonds, manganese, chromite and iron ore to the United States.
Trump’s threat is interfering with a nationally politically charged issue. A 2017 government report shows that 72% of arable land in South Africa is owned by white farmers. However, according to figures from 2022, they make up only 7.3% of the total population. The new land reform law is intended to counteract this. It allows the state to expropriate land without compensation in limited cases. The circumstances in which compensation could actually be waived are very limited. Expropriation without compensation is only permissible if it is ‘just and equitable and in the public interest’. This applies, among other things, to economically unused property that could be used, for example, to build essential infrastructure.
Criticism of the Expropriation Act No 13 of 2024 is also coming from the ranks of the coalition partners of the so-called unity government (Government of National Unity, GNU). The Democratic Alliance (DA), formerly the largest opposition party, is accusing Ramaphosa, who belongs to the African National Congress (ANC), of signing the law without first informing the responsible Ministry of Agriculture. The head of this department is DA leader John Steenhuisen. There is also opposition from the opposition. The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) believe that the provisions of the new law do not go far enough.
Trump’s accusation further strains relations between the US and South Africa, following disagreements over the wars in Ukraine and Gaza that have strained bilateral relations in recent years. This year also sees the renewal of the so-called U.S. Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which so far has provided 35 African countries, including South Africa, with tariff relief for imports to the United States.
In other news
On Sunday, Nigerian singer Tems won a Grammy in the ‘Best African Music Performance’ category at the 67th music awards ceremony in Los Angeles with her song Love Me JeJe. Tems was able to prevail against Afrobeats greats such as Asake and Burna Boy. Tems was also the first indigenous African to be nominated for the categories ‘Best R&B Song’ with Burning and ‘Best Global Music Album’ with Born in the Wild, but came away empty-handed. Other African artists were also successful, including the South African flutist Wouter Kellerman, who secured one of the coveted prizes in the ‘Best New Age, Ambient, or Chant Album’ category. The Grammys were also hosted this year by South African comedian Trevor Noah. After the ‘Best African Music Performance’ category was only introduced last year, this year it was met with a lot of criticism. The category was heavily dominated by the Afrobeats music genre and, apart from the nomination of US singer Chris Brown – whose song also featured Afrobeats star Davido and Nigerian artist Lojay – was made up exclusively of Nigerian artists. In addition to criticising the lack of representation of various African music genres, this sparked a debate as to whether non-African artists should be nominated in a category that is actually intended for African music and African talent.